| 作者 |
 [原创] 中国股市疯牛病：从 AMAZON 股票大涨看华尔街的愚蠢 |
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| 所跟贴 |
误解啊误解 ;-) 我是在想，以你交易员背景，说不定已经实施了一系列的期权策略。。。 -- 残荷 - (2197 Byte) 2007-4-28 周六, 21:07 (542 reads) |
sapientaf
头衔: 海归上校
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加入时间: 2006/08/20
文章: 821
来自: 弯曲，上海，班格罗尔，北京，新加坡
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作者：sapientaf 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
By now you must have noticed that even the call spread is a long term "bullish" bet, it has a build in hedge. As long as MOT stay in a tight range between $15-$20 per share, your bet is ok.
>> However, from another perspective, I would consider you're quite ahead in the game, and be anxious to take advantage of this swift (could be short-lived) recovery of MOT price back to $20 and implement a bear strategy (given your existing bull position); I understand, my extra strategy will reduce the potential of $500 worth of profit 23 months later; but locking in a chunk of that $500 in merely 1 month (or at least reducing the $255 downside risk) doesn't sound like a bad idea to me. <<
Absolutely it is very important for a trader to adjust/change his bet. A long term bullish bet can be augumented with a short term bearish bet.
Since the call "bull" spread is a one sided bet with limited protection to the down side and limited up side, it is critical to monitor the position closely to adjust your "hedge" ratio if the outlook of the underlying stock changes.
MOT has pretty much most of the bad news priced in, but short term, given the AAPL's pending release of iPhone in June/July and the over all bulls run in the US equites, it is prudent to consider add more down side protection (increase the hedge on the down side) by short term buying/spreading additional PUT on MOT. The increased short ratio on MOT and decreased volatility index on the over all US large cap stocks also make the put hedge more reasonable to consider.
In case you want to stay in the call spread, July 16 or 17.5 MOT PUT might be a good down side hedge to protect for further decline of MOT because of iPhone's launch in June. By looking at the Call/Put ratio of MOT for Jun/July, it is also apparent many traders are doing the same.
Regarding AMZN, I will stay out of playing it.
If you don't mind to gamble once in a while, a bear spread of 3-6 month (opposite of the bull spread) on AMZN is a way to go. It will be nothing short of amazing if AMZN can live up to its next quarter's earning expections.
作者：sapientaf 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由sapientaf于2007-4-29 周日, 01:01修改，总共修改了1次
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