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 在杰出经济学家名单中加上diogenes |
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在杰出经济学家名单中加上diogenes -- 危言 - (2788 Byte) 2008-10-16 周四, 06:02 (2339 reads) |
parisparis
头衔: 海归少将
声望: 讲师
加入时间: 2004/09/04
文章: 1996
海归分: 276207
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作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
unsubstantiated bluffy assassination stories, then his other warnings about the fed's abuse of USD reserve currency status and the collapse of GSEs are all time-tested.
井底望天 has good sense about the big picture. I agree 100% with him. But I do not think China can escape this collapse by whipping up domestic demand. It is too late and gov does not have the resolve to do it.
BTW, many Wall Street people tend to get obsessed with daily business and fail to see the big picture. I warned two BSC managing directors in Sep 2007 about the big trouble ahead, but they both believed "subprime trouble is well contained". One of my friends worked for EY and BSC for 7 years, and still did not figure out in March why his firm suddenly collapsed. Even some Big 4 national partners (not staff level partner) in NY could not see the risk associated with their financial service clients in 2007. The only exception is JPMorgan's auditor.
Sometimes, one needs to step back from the daily routine, WS peer group, forget about the promised big bonus and ask some simple questions:
Is life too good to be true since 2006, esp., with the proliferation of easy credit everywhere?
Is the risk premium on every risky asset too low to be reasonable?
Are we too optimistic?
Does the same optimism happen before in the history?
Then it becomes easier to understand.
作者：parisparis 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 在杰出经济学家名单中加上diogenes -- 危言 - (2788 Byte) 2008-10-16 周四, 06:02 (2339 reads) - please take out 刘军络. As to Song--take out his unsubstantiat -- parisparis - (1428 Byte) 2008-10-16 周四, 12:25 (543 reads)
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