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 DJ China Copper Trader Drops From View Amid Short Concerns (ZT) |
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作者：2good2btrue 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
DJ China Copper Trader Drops From View Amid Short Concerns
(This article was originally published Monday.)
By Andrea Hotter
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
LONDON (Dow Jones)－－A Chinese government copper trader, who is said to have built a big short position on the London Metal Exchange, has inexplicably ended contact
with other dealers in both London and in China, said people who have worked with the trader.
Liu Qibing, who worked for China's State Reserve Bureau, took short copper positions that some London dealers said amounted to between 100,000 and 200,000 tons. The traders said the SRB would find it difficult to deliver the amounts of copper traded by what they said was a deadline of Dec. 21.
Liu, who couldn't be reached at his office at the SRB in Beijing, hasn't been at work for weeks, said colleagues at his office. Traders on the London Metal Exchange who have dealt with Liu regularly in the past also told Dow Jones
Newswires that they haven't heard from him for "many weeks."
Some people familiar with Liu said he was removed from his job weeks ago.
The mystery surrounding Liu's wherabouts is provoking widespread speculation among metals traders in London, the U.S., and China about the size of the short position and its potential cost to the Chinese government. The speculation is that the SRB will have to scramble to meet the LME's requirement that the physical metal be delivered to approved LME warehouses. And some people who watch the copper market say they've seen more Chinese deliveries to Asian warehouses inrecent weeks.
Compounding the confusion surrounding Liu is the SRB's denial that it has an employee with that name. Although London metal traders have Liu's business card,
Wang Huimin, the director of the SRB's Materials Management Center, denied any knowledge of such a trader or of a London short copper position.
"I've never heard of this person," said Wang. "Neither have I ever heard anything about the SRB selling short in London. I'm not clear if he is our staff.
The SRB has no traders."
Chinese demand for copper has been helping to lift the copper price for almost two years. The London Metal Exchange, which accounts for 90% of the world's global metals futures trade, plays a major role in setting the global copper price.
Wang, however, said the SRB trades copper primarily on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, mostly through Cofco Futures Co. He said the country's copper reserves are ample and that the country is always ready to cool down domestic
prices.
"China's copper reserves are very sufficient and (we) are able to adjust the market at any time we feel the need to," Wang said.
LME traders are skeptical. They said they think the SRB is trying to give the impression that it has no shortage and isn't worried about meeting delivery obligations. If its actions cause the price to ｄｒｏｐ, it would be able to
reduce its losses, said LME traders.
"Every announcement in the last few weeks from China has been bearish," said one LME trader. "There is a natural short in the market, else prices wouldn't keep
rising. This is not a sign of a market with metal to sell."
Another LME trader said that the more China tries to deliver bearish news, the higher the copper price rises.
"If the SRB had the metal, at these prices they'd be selling it. But we're not seeing the large deliveries to warehouses, or the selling," he said.
"The Chinese could supply the domestic market, cool down prices and make a point. If they have the original documentation for their stocks, they can ship it
where they like. But so far all we've seen is the SRB talking big and doing small."
The LME traders also said it's in the SRB's interest to try to talk down the copper price to make it cheaper to obtain the metal needed for the delivery.
Although any market participant on the long side of such a trade would have an interest in talking up the price, most LME players think the long positions are now widely held, primarily by fund managers.
Chinese analysts said they also think the SRB may be scrambling to buy copper in a tight market for delivery.
If Liu's short position is between 100,000 and 200,000 tons, it would be huge by LME standards. Copper stocks on the LME were only 65,350 tons on Friday, a level which is generally considered to be low.
Traders in London, Beijing, New York and Shanghai said Liu went short by between 100,000 and 200,000 tons, mostly against the December date, betting that the price was ready to fall. But copper prices continued to rise toward $4,000
a ton, the potential losses grew and Liu was removed from his job, said people familiar with the market around the world.
Like all companies, the SRB would likely have used several brokers to handle its orders, a strategy that makes it difficult to independently assess the extent of its short positions or potential losses. If the SRB fails to meet its obligations under LME rules, its counterparties could face a financial loss.
LME spokeswoman Anna Campopiano said the exchange "doesn't comment on market rumor and speculation." Dow Jones Newswires interviewed about a dozen people
around the world familiar with China's short copper position.
Traders in London and New York say that SRB losses could be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. Such a loss would be the largest on the LME since Sumitomo lost an estimated $2.6 billion in 1996.
Even if the SRB has the copper, a big short position on the LME could be a problem. The reason is that the LME requires delivery to go only to specific
warehouses around the world, none of which are in China. To move several hundred thousand tons of copper to one of those warehouses by Dec. 21 would involve big transport costs as well as logistical problems. And the copper may be
needed by Chinese users.
The SRB traditionally builds a strategic reserve of copper, although its size is a state secret. It is generally sold at the market's highs and replenished
at the market's lows. Estimates of the strategic reserve's current size range from 100,000 to 500,000 tons, but many believe it is around 200,000 to 250,000 tons.
If Liu took short positions requiring delivery of as much as 200,000 tons, much of the estimated reserve would be depleted. And people in China who follow the
market said some of the SRB reserve dates to the early 1990s, raising questions about whether its quality would be acceptable to the LME for delivery.
In Beijing, a senior metal researcher and local traders said SRB shipments to Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses in Asia could be a sign it is has the metal to make a big delivery to LME warehouses and cover its London short. The
researcher and traders said the SRB has already shipped 18,000 tons of copper to LME warehouses and that another 12,000 tons are still to come.
Shanghai warehouses have shown more of a rise in copper stocks recently. Shanghai Futures Exchange data shows that copper stocks have risen 26,084 tons in November to date and by 17,898 tons in October. Although those warehouses are not approved for LME deliveries, the market is watching their stocks for an indication how much copper the SRB has.
"The SRB could claim to have a stockpile of five million tons but if they can't deliver against their LME short, it's no good," said one LME trader.
"Getting metal to warehouses in time could be a problem, unless they can swap against imports, but as they're continuing to sell against Shanghai this can't be the case."
Recently announced plans by the SRB to release state copper reserves via an auction have done little to halt the gains in copper prices. The SRB said earlier this week that it was to sell 20,000 tons of state reserves, now stored in Beijing, Shanghai and Ningbo, in a Nov. 16 auction. The government said the sales were meant to alleviate the tight domestic supply and meet local demand.
-By Andrea Hotter, Dow Jones Newswires；
作者：2good2btrue 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
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 DJ China Copper Trader Drops From View Amid Short Concerns (ZT) -- 2good2btrue - (8032 Byte) 2005-11-14 周一, 20:09 (1061 reads)
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