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 [讨论]技术前瞻：美股或将现中期底,反弹之前可能出现清除弱手的震仓行情 |
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gigilang
头衔: 海归中校
声望: 博导
性别: 
加入时间: 2008/05/01
文章: 1377
来自: usa
海归分: 43104
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作者：gigilang 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
大盘今天颜色真好看，大好河山一片红！  dug & qid 是万花丛中两点绿。
NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of pharmaceutical companies closed lower Thursday, with Pfizer hitting an 11-year low as the broader market fell sharply on a new record high in oil and fears of inflation.
How some key drug makers performed Thursday:
Schering-Plough Corp., down 75 cents, or 3.8 percent, to $18.98.
Merck & Co., down 78 cents, or 2.1 percent, to $36.20.
Pfizer Inc., down 71 cents, or 4 percent, to $17.17.
Bristol-Myers Squibb Co., down 65 cents, or 3.2 percent, to $19.67.
Key DOW Levels for 6/27
UP None
DN None
Major Break at Support..
Dow breaks major support, hits new lows on the year.
From prior commentary, "...The Dow continues to hold above major support in the Daily Chart, which currently sits in the 11,635 to 11,735 zone. Again, a big break or bounce from this level could spark the next major directional trend..."
The Dow opened the day with clear weakness this morning, as the index dropped 160 points in the first hour of the day, seen in the 15 Minute Chart. The index then broke through critical support at 11,635 and never looked back, eventually ending the day with a huge loss of 358 points.
The Daily and Weekly Charts show the Dow has violated major support in grand fashion and could be on the verge of a very bearish decline ahead. The Weekly Chart shows the Dow has now violated the neck line of a large head-and-shoulders pattern that has developed over the last 18 months. This pattern actually predicts a target of about at least 10,000, which is quite a ways down.
The Dow remains within a very bearish downtrend in the 60 Minute Chart. Since the index dropped so heavily today, we could see a minor reaction rally or the development of a consolidation tomorrow. Look for more overall weakness below 12,000.
Short Term Dow
The Dow closed the day below the 12,500 level, seen in the 5 Minute Chart. Watch this minor fulcrum for early direction at the Open.
Medium Term Dow
In the medium term, we are still out of the market and will hold off on trades at this time.
NASDAQ & S&P
The NASDAQ and S&P each sold off steadily throughout the day. Look for more overall downtrending activity, with intermittent reaction rallies.
Summary
The Dow closed the day at the lows of the session and continues to trend steadily lower within the current six week downtrend. The index has now broken to new lows for the year and could be headed much lower over the next few months.
About oil_ one article to share with everybody.
Oil Bubble Set to Pop: Crude to Fall 25 Percent in 6 Months, Says Invesco's Garnick
in Investing, Commodities
Related: OIL, USO, DUG, GLD, XLE
Oil prices surged again Thursday after Libya threatened to cut production and OPEC's president forecast $170 crude this summer. The Fed's inability to raise rates to support the dollar is also keeping crude prices aloft, as well other commodities like gold.
But oil is a bubble that's going to pop soon, says Diane Garnick, investment strategist at Invesco, which has nearly $500 billion of assets under management.
Demand for oil in the emerging market has been "overstated," says Garnick, who foresees a 25% decline for crude in the next six months. Garnick may be right about demand, but I'm still of the view that supply constraints are the fundamental reason for rising oil prices. That said, I'll note commodity maven Marc Faber of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report has also turned cautious on the sector, at least for the next 6 to 12 months.
While Garnick is in the "oil is a bubble" camp, she disagrees with those who blame speculators for its rise and worries about the unintended consequences of related legislation.
作者：gigilang 在 海归商务 发贴, 来自【海归网】 http://www.haiguinet.com
上一次由gigilang于2008-6-27 周五, 07:25修改，总共修改了4次
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 [讨论]技术前瞻：美股或将现中期底,反弹之前可能出现清除弱手的震仓行情 -- gigilang - (3831 Byte) 2008-6-27 周五, 04:32 (2517 reads) - 拐点快到了。 -- 雨林 - (7 Byte) 2008-6-27 周五, 12:22 (341 reads)
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